Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff WriterOct 9, 2012, 08:00 AM
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- Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.
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LAS VEGAS -- The Houston Texans remained undefeated with their 23-17 victory over the New York Jets on Monday night, but their non-covering performance was enough to knock them from the No. 1 spot in the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll.
The New England Patriots are the new top team off their 31-21 win over the Denver Broncos. Our pollsters, including Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley, upgraded the Patriots by half a point, while the Texans dropped half a point to swap places. The San Francisco 49ers also gained a half-point off their 45-3 win over the Buffalo Bills to tie the Texans at No. 2.
Each of the pollsters' scales are different, but I converted them all to look closer to NFL scores, though they're intended to compare the relative strengths of teams as they're performing right now as opposed to being actual predictions of scores. The goal is to compare the numbers and find value against the lines at your disposal.
(Note: The Washington Redskins' rating is based on the assumption that Robert Griffin III will be playing this week and would be lower if he was declared out and replaced by Kirk Cousins; meanwhile, the Titans' Jake Locker/Matt Hasselbeck and the Chiefs' Matt Cassel/Brady Quinn are seen as pretty much equal.).
The biggest drop among the perceived elite teams was the Green Bay Packers dropping a full point after their 30-27 outright loss at the Indianapolis Colts. The mid-pack San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals were downgraded by 1.5 points apiece. In the lower tier, the Carolina Panthers lost two points of value while the Tennessee Titans lost a point and a half.
The Miami Dolphins saw the biggest increase in their power ratings at 1.5 points, while the Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams and Colts also saw a boost of a point in their power ratings.
Remember, there are a variety of factors you should weigh when betting games each week. But we hope that the Bettors' Poll is one tool you'll consult, along with your other systems.
Here is the Week 6 Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll:
Value in the lines for Week 6
Last week, we pointed out seven possible plays based on the difference between the power ratings here and the numbers that are available in the betting marketplace. Those suggestions went 4-3 against the spread for the second straight week (8-6 ATS overall). Again this week, the majority of the numbers are pretty much spot-on and we have just two differences worth noting. There were a few cases such as the Ravens being rated 2.5 points better than the Cowboys and with an adjustment of 2.5 or even 3 points for home-field advantage, that would have them minus-5 or minus-5.5. But with the spread at minus-3.5 (laying the hook above the key number of 3), that's not much of an edge, so I'm not including that.
(Disclaimer: These are not my personal plays, just suggestions based on the combined ratings from the group as a whole. Many other factors can come into play when handicapping the games such as travel, scheduling dynamics, rivalries, revenge, etc.).
I'll be back with my own ESPN Insider picks for Week 6 on Friday.
Atlanta Falcons minus-8.5 versus Oakland Raiders: Atlanta is eight points better than Oakland on our raw numbers and with at least 2.5 points for home-field advantage, the Falcons look like they should be favored by 10.5 points or so. With the line at minus-8.5 as of this writing, there appears to be value in laying anything less than double digits.
Seattle Seahawks plus 3.5 versus New England Patriots: This would be the second straight week our poll suggested going against our own top picks, but that's what the numbers say. The Patriots are 5.5 points above the Seahawks, but with Seattle's significant home-field advantage, that takes the edge below a field goal and they're getting plus-3.5.
We understand many people might be saying "just two plays," but the numbers are what they are, and an important lesson to remember is that plays shouldn't be forced.
One other potential play exists with the Chiefs-Buccaneers being off the board as of last Monday night due to the uncertain status of Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassel. The power ratings have the Chiefs and Bucs dead even at 17-17, so if the Buccaneers are made a 3-point favorite or more (especially if Cassel is out), that would make the Chiefs a value play.
Panel
Dave Tuley of ESPN Insider and ViewFromVegas.com
Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com
Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com
